for the month of April 2019
Working through the statistics of home sales to uncover the trends and make predictions for future behavior is a lot like playing baseball. You assess each players’ skills and ability, do your best to put strong players in each position, then toss out the ball and see what happens!
First up to bat is buyer demand, up 12% in most marketplaces according to NAR statistics. But today’s buyers are discerning batters; they aren’t swinging at everything and they are being cautious about striking out. Always wary of interest rate hikes and thankful for recent drops, they are still keeping watch for those high balls but the strength of the job market motivates them to swing decidedly in hopes of a sweet HOME RUN!
In fact, the chance of a mortgage interest rate hike in 2019 is looking more unlikely every day. In the absence of a surprise uptick in economic growth and inflation, we should expect home loan rates to remain near current levels for now.
Next up are new housing starts. Not content to warm the bench, the National Association of Home Builders' Housing Market Index saw a four-point rebound in February and is now at 62 on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good.
Randy Noel, NAHB's chairman, says expectations for the months ahead have turned hopeful. “Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment,” Noel said. “In the aftermath of the fall slowdown, many builders are reporting positive expectations for the spring selling season.”
With the good news about no immediate rate hikes, job market statistics and optimism from industry experts, the forecast for home sellers is clear skies and fastballs screaming over the plate begging to be hit out of the park.
Resident numbers in Jefferson County swelled by 743 this past March from the 1015 available listings that gave buyers a chance at their own HOME RUN. Umpires called them SAFE after just 25 Days on Market and the fans roared with delight at average sale prices of $472,110.
Greater inventory numbers help keep prices in check, allowing more players to leave the field a winner in the game of home ownership. Increases in pricing slow when there is more inventory, yet the home seller should still see adequate equity increases from any sale. A wider range of buyers will find affordability well within reach.
The entire Front Range is seeing real estate activity increase as we move into the spring season, and the active listings year over year are experiencing big improvements over the last several years. Average down payments are around 16%, which includes conventional, FHA and non-conforming loan types. Average home prices are area specific, but all price points are seeing a good amount of movement.
In fact, according to a January 2019 article in Forbes magazine, we are the hottest real estate market in the country. The article hinted that purchasing a home along the Front Range requires, as they put it, “flexing some muscle”, but it seems we are indeed flexing those muscles.
Springtime has arrived, so let’s PLAY BALL!